EUR/USD: Traders Majority Long Buying Dips Ahead of FOMC Event

Indices:

- U.S. equity index futures climb as oil prices fall back, building on a session of gains for key equity indices that was light for the Dow 30 (+0.1% to 46,993), healthier for the S&P 500 (+0.3% to 6,716) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.5% to 24,780), and more so the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.7% to 2,519) as traders brace for today’s FOMC event; Treasury yields fell back again on the further end of the curve and follows a strong 20-year auction, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) shows it’s a hold out of the Fed tonight and for some time with healthy likelihoods of a cut only occurring in December, though you can expect today’s announcement to alter those probabilities

Stocks:

- Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) (-0.7%) fell back by the close as intraday highs failed to stick even as CEO Huang spoke of $1tn orders for its Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2027 and that it doesn’t include new products to come, as well as buybacks and dividends that’ll be a large number; limited losses for AMD (-0.1%) while heavy for Intel (-3.7%), though within the semiconductor sphere TSM (+1.7%), Qualcomm (+1.7%) raising its quarterly dividend and approving a new $20bn share buyback, and more so Micron (NASDAQ:MU) (+4.5%) finished higher with the latter’s market cap breaching half a trillion dollars

- Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares close 1.6% higher, to expand new 1-hour and 3-hour delivery options across the U.S. and sees shares of Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) (-0.7%) and Instacart (-1.5%) fall back by the close

- Good session for airline stocks with shares of Delta Air Lines (+6.6%) up after it raised its Q1 revenue growth guidance, as well as American Airlines (+3.5%) who sees its total revenue rising 10% and aiding travel stocks like Booking (+3.5%) and Expedia (+4.2%)

- Tough session for shares of Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) (-5.9%) suffering a downgrade to reduce out of HSBC as it sees an “inflated” market for obesity drugs; DraftKings (+1.3%) also gets a downgrade to hold from Argus as it faces “aggressive” competition from prediction markets though its shares recovered to finish higher

- Uber (NYSE:UBER) (+4.2%) shares climbed after its announcement regarding launching robotaxis that’ll use Nvidia’s self-driving software starting in 2027

- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-7.4%), Kohl’s (-2.7%), Krispy Kreme (+4.4%), Opendoor (+7.3%)

- Most crypto stocks track cryptocurrencies higher: Coinbase (+3.4%), MicroStrategy (+1.9%), Mara Holdings (+0.1%), Gemini Space Station (-1.5%), Bullish (+0.8%)

- Earnings:

Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU): beats on both earnings and revenue but offers a weak 2026 outlook, expects a higher hit from tariffs, and sees sales in the U.S. declining this year though growing elsewhere and notably in China; shares down 1.7% in extended trading

DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU): easily beats on earnings and revenue, and authorizes a new $2bn share repurchase program; shares rise 1.5% in extended trading

Commodities:

- Calm moves for gold again as it continues to hover around $5K ahead of today’s Fed announcement, while silver suffered a pullback to break beneath $79 and taking the gold/silver ratio 63

- Relatively steadier intraday action for oil prices (WTI) breaking beneath $93 even as the conflict persists but where some vessels have been permitted safe passage through the Strait; API’s weekly energy inventory readings show a surplus for oil (+6.6m barrels) but drawdowns for both gasoline (-4.6m) and distillate (-1.4m); U.S. expands Venezuela sanctions waivers

FX/Central Banks/Crypto:

- Bitcoin’s move to nearly reach $76K mostly fails to stick as it falls back to $74K with traders noting whether the previous resistance level will turn into a key support one, with Ether still above $2.3K; Citi cuts its 12-month forecast notably for both cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin to $112K from $143K and Ether from $4,304 to $3,175 due to slow legislative progress in the U.S., and that in the event of a recession to $58K and $1,198, respectively)

- US Dollar Index falls back again though yet to exit the 99 handle as traders turn their attention to key central bank announcements including the FOMC event tonight and how it might impact rate cut likelihoods that only see one interest rate reduction this year

Capital.com Client Sentiment:

- Indices: Small changes in price result in small changes in sentiment as they remain heavy buy in all key U.S. equity indices save the Nasdaq (60% from 63% yesterday) in moderate majority long territory; elsewhere the changes in sentiment were also relatively small and moving further into extreme buy territory in the Hang Seng (83% from 80%)

- Commodities: Extreme buy and little changed in gold (83% from 82% yesterday), while raising it in silver (88% from 85%) as it suffered a larger percentage drop seeing some shorts close out and fresh longs initiate

- FX: Small changes throughout ahead of key central bank decisions today and tomorrow

Data:

- U.S. pending home sales in February up 1.8% m/m, beating expectations

- German ZEW survey shows economic sentiment falls notably from 58.3 to -0.5 and well below forecasts, with a slight improvement in the current situation to -62.9; economic sentiment reading for the bloc also falls into negative territory (to -8.5 from 39.4 prior)

Today:

- U.S. FOMC policy announcement (10 pm Dubai time; expected to hold on rates but traders will note their ‘dot plot’ and forecasts), press conference (at 10:30 pm), weekly mortgage applications (3 pm), PPI (4:30 pm), factory orders (6 pm), EIA’s weekly energy inventory estimates (6:30 pm)

o   Earnings from Micron, General Mills, Macy’s, and others

- Bank of Canada’s policy announcement (5:45 pm; expected to hold on rates), press conference (at 6:30 pm)

- EZ (final) CPI (2pm)